New York Red Bulls 0-1 FC Cincinnati — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.46
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
36%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.23
Over 2.5
53%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.5
No
40%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.47
2-3 Goals
38%
1.89
4-5 Goals
25%
2.8
6+ Goals
12%
7.78
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.6
1/2
6%
24.0
1/X
8%
12.65
X/1
15%
6.01
X/2
10%
5.91
X/X
12%
5.57
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
24.45
2/2
20%
3.51
2/X
6%
12.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.45 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+0.2pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.6pp
36%
Away Win
37%
-0.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.0pp
60%
BTTS Yes
62%
-2.7pp
40%
BTTS No
38%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New York Red Bulls EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 40%
+5% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +9%
1.46/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.57
+1% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -16%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
360 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 80%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.6
12.9 Crosses 11.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New York Red Bulls
3W-1D-2L
AWAY FC Cincinnati
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.18 xG 1.11
41% Ball Possession 59%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
244 Passes 375
70% Pass Accuracy 78%
27 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
23.02.2025 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-0 HT 0-0 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
21.07.2024 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 3-1 HT 1-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
07.04.2024 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-2 HT 1-1 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
05.11.2023 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 1-1 HT 1-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
30.10.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 3-0 HT 2-0 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
05.10.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-2 HT 0-2 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New York Red Bulls
0-1
AWAY FC Cincinnati
1.03 xG 0.67
65% Ball Possession 35%
16 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 1
12 Corners 1
555 Passes 282
87% Pass Accuracy 78%
44 Box Touches 12
37 Crosses 5
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH New York Red Bulls vs FC Cincinnati
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Cincinnati squeezed past New York Red Bulls 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (38% / 26% / 36%) promised a tight game; FC Cincinnati found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, New York Red Bulls had 65% of the ball to FC Cincinnati's 35%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 1.03 to 0.67.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, New York Red Bulls had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for New York Red Bulls and 1.33 for FC Cincinnati.

What was the final score of New York Red Bulls vs FC Cincinnati?

New York Red Bulls 0-1 FC Cincinnati in the USA - Major League on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New York Red Bulls vs FC Cincinnati?

Before kick-off our model rated a New York Red Bulls win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split New York Red Bulls 38%, draw 26%, FC Cincinnati 36%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (New York Red Bulls) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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