HJK Helsinki 1-0 FC Lahti — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 4 May 2026

📅04/05/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.57
Draw
21%
3.8
Away
16%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.03
Over 2.5
55%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.76
No
46%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.67
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
26%
3.1
6+ Goals
10%
10.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.99
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
9%
14.85
X/1
21%
4.09
X/2
6%
10.45
X/X
7%
5.64
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
21.8
2/2
6%
8.34
2/X
5%
16.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.8 — our 11% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
59%
+3.6pp
21%
Draw
23%
-1.8pp
16%
Away Win
18%
-1.8pp
45%
Under 2.5
45%
-0.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
55%
+0.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.1pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HJK Helsinki EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Lahti EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -8%
1.74/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.39
+5% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +14%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
487 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 75%
30.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
16.3 Crosses 20.1
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HJK Helsinki
2W-0D-4L
AWAY FC Lahti
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.12 xG 0.94
63% Ball Possession 37%
19 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
464 Passes 233
85% Pass Accuracy 73%
38 Box Touches 15
30 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
24.01.2026 FC Lahti FC Lahti 2-0 HT 1-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FLK
03.08.2024 FC Lahti FC Lahti 2-1 HT 1-1 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
11.04.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 4-0 HT 2-0 FC Lahti FC Lahti FİN
27.02.2024 FC Lahti FC Lahti 3-0 HT 2-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FLK
08.07.2023 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 0-1 HT 0-1 FC Lahti FC Lahti FİN
07.06.2023 FC Lahti FC Lahti 1-2 HT 1-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HJK Helsinki
1-0
AWAY FC Lahti
0.65 xG 1.01
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 9
390 Passes 400
87% Pass Accuracy 88%
25 Box Touches 20
8 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH HJK Helsinki vs FC Lahti
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HJK Helsinki edged past FC Lahti 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had HJK Helsinki as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, HJK Helsinki had 49% of the ball to FC Lahti's 51%, shots finished 7-12, expected goals 0.65 to 1.01.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Lahti led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for HJK Helsinki and 1.50 for FC Lahti.

What was the final score of HJK Helsinki vs FC Lahti?

HJK Helsinki 1-0 FC Lahti in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 04/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HJK Helsinki vs FC Lahti?

Before kick-off our model rated a HJK Helsinki win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split HJK Helsinki 63%, draw 21%, FC Lahti 16%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (HJK Helsinki) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (HJK Helsinki) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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