Junior 4-3 Deportivo Pasto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 4 May 2026

📅04/05/2026 · 🕒01:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.8
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
25%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.78
Over 2.5
47%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
52%
+0.3pp
23%
Draw
27%
-3.1pp
25%
Away Win
22%
+2.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
-0.0pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Junior EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Pasto EU Bookmakers 25%
+1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +4%
1.49/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.20
+17% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +11%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
336 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 75%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.8
16.7 Crosses 13.2
2.9 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Junior
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Deportivo Pasto
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.44 xG 0.77
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
364 Passes 236
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
21 Box Touches 12
19 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 4
29.09.2025 Junior Junior 2-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
13.04.2025 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 3-3 HT 3-1 Junior Junior KOL
29.08.2024 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-0 HT 0-0 Junior Junior KOL
09.02.2024 Junior Junior 2-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
13.08.2023 Junior Junior 0-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
19.02.2023 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-0 HT 0-0 Junior Junior KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Junior
4-3
AWAY Deportivo Pasto
1.11 xG 1.75
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
215 Passes 257
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
15 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Junior vs Deportivo Pasto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Junior edged past Deportivo Pasto 4-3. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Junior as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Junior had 46% of the ball to Deportivo Pasto's 54%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 1.11 to 1.75 — on chances, Deportivo Pasto could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Junior and 0.83 for Deportivo Pasto.

What was the final score of Junior vs Deportivo Pasto?

Junior 4-3 Deportivo Pasto in the Colombia - Primera on 04/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Junior vs Deportivo Pasto?

Before kick-off our model rated a Junior win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Junior 52%, draw 23%, Deportivo Pasto 25%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Junior) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Junior) ✗ Under 2.5
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