Almagro 1-0 Atletico Rafaela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - National Primera Liga, 4 Jul 2026

📅04/07/2026 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.19
Draw
25%
2.83
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
Over 2.5
41%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.4
No
60%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
11%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
42%
+4.5pp
25%
Draw
32%
-6.7pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+2.2pp
40%
BTTS Yes
38%
+2.3pp
60%
BTTS No
62%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almagro EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Rafaela EU Bookmakers 29%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -19%
0.93/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/1.23
-15% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -12%
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
327 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almagro
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Atletico Rafaela
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 7
5 Yellow Cards 1
14.02.2026 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela 0-0 HT 0-0 Almagro Almagro ARJPBN
19.08.2024 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela 2-3 HT 1-2 Almagro Almagro ARJPBN
30.03.2024 Almagro Almagro 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela ARJPBN
17.04.2022 Almagro Almagro 3-1 HT 3-1 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela ARJPBN
28.08.2021 Almagro Almagro 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela ARJPBN
18.04.2021 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela 4-1 HT 0-1 Almagro Almagro ARJPBN
POST-MATCH Almagro vs Atletico Rafaela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almagro squeezed past Atletico Rafaela 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Almagro as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (60%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Almagro had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Almagro and 1.17 for Atletico Rafaela.

What was the final score of Almagro vs Atletico Rafaela?

Almagro 1-0 Atletico Rafaela in the Argentina - National Primera Liga on 04/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almagro vs Atletico Rafaela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Almagro win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Almagro 47%, draw 25%, Atletico Rafaela 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Almagro), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Almagro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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