Gold Coast Knights 2-1 Moreton City Excelsior — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - Queensland NPL, 4 Jul 2026

📅04/07/2026 · 🕒09:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.47
Draw
15%
3.72
Away
39%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
33%
Over 2.5
67%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
67%
1.32
No
33%
3.08
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
15%
X/2
20%
X/X
6%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
36%
+9.2pp
15%
Draw
23%
-8.0pp
39%
Away Win
40%
-1.2pp
67%
BTTS Yes
72%
-4.1pp
33%
BTTS No
28%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gold Coast Knights EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Moreton City Excelsior EU Bookmakers 45%
+33% / +33% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +34% / +34%
2.71/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.97/0.48
+82% / +128% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +150%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
296 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.1 Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gold Coast Knights
2W-0D-3L
AWAY Moreton City Excelsior
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
20.02.2026 Moreton City Excelsior Moreton City Excelsior 4-1 HT 2-0 Gold Coast Knights Gold Coast Knights AVNPL
15.08.2025 Moreton City Excelsior Moreton City Excelsior 4-0 HT 2-0 Gold Coast Knights Gold Coast Knights AVSQ
02.05.2025 Gold Coast Knights Gold Coast Knights 1-0 HT 0-0 Moreton City Excelsior Moreton City Excelsior AVSQ
02.08.2024 Gold Coast Knights Gold Coast Knights 2-5 HT 2-1 Moreton City Excelsior Moreton City Excelsior AVNPL
27.04.2024 Moreton City Excelsior Moreton City Excelsior 2-3 HT 1-1 Gold Coast Knights Gold Coast Knights AVNPL
POST-MATCH Gold Coast Knights vs Moreton City Excelsior
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gold Coast Knights nicked a narrow win over Moreton City Excelsior 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Gold Coast Knights as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (68%), both teams to score (67%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Moreton City Excelsior led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Gold Coast Knights and 3.00 for Moreton City Excelsior.

What was the final score of Gold Coast Knights vs Moreton City Excelsior?

Gold Coast Knights 2-1 Moreton City Excelsior in the Australia - Queensland NPL on 04/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gold Coast Knights vs Moreton City Excelsior?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gold Coast Knights win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Gold Coast Knights 46%, draw 15%, Moreton City Excelsior 39%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gold Coast Knights), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gold Coast Knights) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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