Moreton City Excelsior 4-1 Gold Coast Knights — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 20 Feb 2026

📅20/02/2026 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.8
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
22%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.23
Over 2.5
49%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.56
No
46%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
51%
-1.1pp
28%
Draw
23%
+4.8pp
22%
Away Win
25%
-3.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+10.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-10.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.2pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Moreton City Excelsior EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Gold Coast Knights EU Bookmakers 29%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.00
-50% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +91%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
320 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 20.0
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Moreton City Excelsior
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Gold Coast Knights
2.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
15.08.2025 Moreton City Excelsior Moreton City Excelsior 4-0 HT 2-0 Gold Coast Knights Gold Coast Knights AVSQ
02.05.2025 Gold Coast Knights Gold Coast Knights 1-0 HT 0-0 Moreton City Excelsior Moreton City Excelsior AVSQ
02.08.2024 Gold Coast Knights Gold Coast Knights 2-5 HT 2-1 Moreton City Excelsior Moreton City Excelsior AVNPL
27.04.2024 Moreton City Excelsior Moreton City Excelsior 2-3 HT 1-1 Gold Coast Knights Gold Coast Knights AVNPL
POST-MATCH Moreton City Excelsior vs Gold Coast Knights
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Moreton City Excelsior swept aside Gold Coast Knights 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Moreton City Excelsior as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 2.75 goals for Moreton City Excelsior and 1.50 for Gold Coast Knights.

What was the final score of Moreton City Excelsior vs Gold Coast Knights?

Moreton City Excelsior 4-1 Gold Coast Knights in the Australia - National Premier League on 20/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Moreton City Excelsior vs Gold Coast Knights?

Before kick-off our model rated a Moreton City Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Moreton City Excelsior 50%, draw 28%, Gold Coast Knights 22%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Moreton City Excelsior), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Moreton City Excelsior) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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