Paide Linnameeskond 3-1 Parnu JK Vaprus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 4 Jul 2026

📅04/07/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.49
Draw
18%
4.19
Away
20%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.29
Over 2.5
58%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.6
No
44%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
18%
X/2
5%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
11%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
62%
-0.1pp
18%
Draw
20%
-2.2pp
20%
Away Win
17%
+2.4pp
42%
Under 2.5
40%
+2.6pp
58%
Over 2.5
60%
-2.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
-2.5pp
44%
BTTS No
42%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paide Linnameeskond EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 21%
-9% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +2%
1.71/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.62
-19% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +20%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
422 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paide Linnameeskond
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.03.2026 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 3-2 HT 0-0 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond EST1
02.11.2025 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond 3-0 HT 1-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
30.08.2025 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 1-0 HT 1-0 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond EST1
18.06.2025 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 1-2 HT 1-2 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond EST1
09.04.2025 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond 1-0 HT 1-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
23.10.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-1 HT 0-1 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paide Linnameeskond
3-1
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
62% Ball Possession 38%
20 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Paide Linnameeskond vs Parnu JK Vaprus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paide Linnameeskond beat Parnu JK Vaprus 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Paide Linnameeskond as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Paide Linnameeskond had 62% of the ball to Parnu JK Vaprus's 38%, shots finished 20-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paide Linnameeskond had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Paide Linnameeskond and 0.83 for Parnu JK Vaprus.

What was the final score of Paide Linnameeskond vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

Paide Linnameeskond 3-1 Parnu JK Vaprus in the Estonia - Premium League on 04/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paide Linnameeskond vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paide Linnameeskond win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Paide Linnameeskond 62%, draw 18%, Parnu JK Vaprus 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paide Linnameeskond), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Paide Linnameeskond) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
EST1 More Estonia - Premium League
4 Jul 2026
19:00 Trans Narva vs FC Levadia Analysis →