Parnu JK Vaprus 3-2 Paide Linnameeskond — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 7 Mar 2026

📅07/03/2026 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
17%
5.34
Draw
21%
4.19
Away
62%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.29
Over 2.5
60%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.73
No
45%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
30%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
6%
X/2
23%
X/X
7%
2/1
4%
2/2
31%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
17%
Home Win
16%
+1.6pp
20%
Draw
20%
-0.1pp
62%
Away Win
64%
-1.6pp
40%
Under 2.5
40%
+0.3pp
60%
Over 2.5
60%
-0.3pp
55%
BTTS Yes
54%
+1.4pp
45%
BTTS No
46%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Paide Linnameeskond EU Bookmakers 69%
+2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -5%
1.07/1.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/0.92
+2% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -4%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
263 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 442 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Paide Linnameeskond
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
02.11.2025 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond 3-0 HT 1-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
30.08.2025 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 1-0 HT 1-0 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond EST1
18.06.2025 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 1-2 HT 1-2 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond EST1
09.04.2025 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond 1-0 HT 1-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
23.10.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-1 HT 0-1 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond EST1
18.08.2024 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond 1-0 HT 1-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus
3-2
AWAY Paide Linnameeskond
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Parnu JK Vaprus vs Paide Linnameeskond
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Parnu JK Vaprus squeezed past Paide Linnameeskond 3-2. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Paide Linnameeskond at 62% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Parnu JK Vaprus had 41% of the ball to Paide Linnameeskond's 59%, shots finished 10-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paide Linnameeskond led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Parnu JK Vaprus and 1.33 for Paide Linnameeskond.

What was the final score of Parnu JK Vaprus vs Paide Linnameeskond?

Parnu JK Vaprus 3-2 Paide Linnameeskond in the Estonia - Premium League on 07/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Parnu JK Vaprus vs Paide Linnameeskond?

Before kick-off our model rated an Paide Linnameeskond win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Parnu JK Vaprus 17%, draw 20%, Paide Linnameeskond 62%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Paide Linnameeskond) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Paide Linnameeskond) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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