Marupe 2-1 Smiltene — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 4 Jul 2026

📅04/07/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.37
Draw
22%
4.62
Away
16%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
Over 2.5
59%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
4%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
68%
-5.5pp
22%
Draw
18%
+3.7pp
16%
Away Win
14%
+1.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.1pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marupe EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Smiltene EU Bookmakers 17%
-32% / -32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +15%
1.71/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.65
-36% / -39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +53%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
450 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marupe
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Smiltene
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
23.08.2025 Marupe Marupe 0-3 HT 0-1 Smiltene Smiltene LET1
19.04.2025 Smiltene Smiltene 1-2 Marupe Marupe LET1
06.10.2024 Marupe Marupe 0-0 Smiltene Smiltene LET1
15.06.2024 Smiltene Smiltene 0-1 HT 0-0 Marupe Marupe LET1
11.06.2022 Marupe Marupe 3-3 HT 1-2 Smiltene Smiltene LETK
POST-MATCH Marupe vs Smiltene
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marupe nicked a narrow win over Smiltene 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Marupe as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Marupe had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Marupe and 1.40 for Smiltene.

What was the final score of Marupe vs Smiltene?

Marupe 2-1 Smiltene in the Latvia - 1st Division on 04/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marupe vs Smiltene?

Before kick-off our model rated a Marupe win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Marupe 62%, draw 22%, Smiltene 16%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marupe), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Marupe) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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