Naples 2-3 Portland Hearts of Pine — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - USL League 1, 4 Jul 2026

📅04/07/2026 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.19
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
29%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.1
Over 2.5
54%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.56
No
42%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
20%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
42%
+2.7pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.7pp
29%
Away Win
33%
-4.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.9pp
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
-1.8pp
42%
BTTS No
40%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Naples EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Portland Hearts of Pine EU Bookmakers 37%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
1.39/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.39
-9% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -30%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
368 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 81%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
21.9 Crosses 15.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Naples
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Portland Hearts of Pine
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.00 xG 1.54
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
242 Passes 279
71% Pass Accuracy 77%
15 Box Touches 29
21 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
19.04.2026 Portland Hearts of Pine 1-1 HT 1-0 Naples USL1
22.09.2025 Portland Hearts of Pine 1-0 HT 1-0 Naples USL1
18.05.2025 Portland Hearts of Pine 2-1 HT 1-0 Naples USL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Naples
2-3
AWAY Portland Hearts of Pine
0.63 xG 1.88
13 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 7
321 Passes 317
12 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Naples vs Portland Hearts of Pine
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portland Hearts of Pine edged past Naples 3-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Naples at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 0.63 to 1.88 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Portland Hearts of Pine's control.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Portland Hearts of Pine led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Naples and 1.33 for Portland Hearts of Pine.

What was the final score of Naples vs Portland Hearts of Pine?

Naples 2-3 Portland Hearts of Pine in the USA - USL League 1 on 04/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Naples vs Portland Hearts of Pine?

Before kick-off our model rated a Naples win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Naples 45%, draw 27%, Portland Hearts of Pine 29%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Naples) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Naples) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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