El Nacional 0-2 Uni. Catolica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 4 Aug 2024

📅04/08/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.46
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
40%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.86
Over 2.5
51%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
18%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
26%
+8.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.7pp
40%
Away Win
47%
-7.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
50%
-0.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
50%
+0.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.4pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Nacional EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Uni. Catolica EU Bookmakers 51%
-7% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +2%
1.37/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.06
+1% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +33%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
246 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 79%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
20.6 Crosses 17.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Nacional
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Uni. Catolica
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.96 xG 1.59
36% Ball Possession 64%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
174 Passes 405
66% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
03.03.2024 Uni. Catolica 3-0 HT 1-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
02.09.2023 Uni. Catolica 1-1 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
08.04.2023 El Nacional El Nacional 1-2 HT 1-1 Uni. Catolica EKV1
19.11.2020 El Nacional El Nacional 0-2 HT 0-2 Uni. Catolica EKV1
24.08.2020 Uni. Catolica 1-1 HT 0-1 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
25.08.2019 El Nacional El Nacional 0-1 HT 0-1 Uni. Catolica EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME El Nacional
0-2
AWAY Uni. Catolica
0.87 xG 0.68
50% Ball Possession 50%
4 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
225 Passes 230
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Box Touches 11
20 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH El Nacional vs Uni. Catolica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uni. Catolica beat El Nacional 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (34% / 27% / 40%) promised a tight game; Uni. Catolica found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, El Nacional had 50% of the ball to Uni. Catolica's 50%, shots finished 4-12, expected goals 0.87 to 0.68.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Uni. Catolica led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for El Nacional and 1.67 for Uni. Catolica.

What was the final score of El Nacional vs Uni. Catolica?

El Nacional 0-2 Uni. Catolica in the Ecuador - Premier on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Nacional vs Uni. Catolica?

Before kick-off our model rated an Uni. Catolica win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split El Nacional 34%, draw 27%, Uni. Catolica 40%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Uni. Catolica) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Uni. Catolica) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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