Vitoria 2-2 Palmeiras — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 4 Aug 2025

📅04/08/2025 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.94
Draw
26%
2.83
Away
42%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.44
Over 2.5
35%
2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.27
No
59%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
1.97
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
15%
6.29
6+ Goals
8%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
8%
X/2
16%
X/X
8%
2/1
5%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
31%
+0.9pp
27%
Draw
32%
-5.5pp
42%
Away Win
37%
+4.6pp
65%
Under 2.5
66%
-0.6pp
35%
Over 2.5
34%
+0.6pp
41%
BTTS Yes
40%
+0.7pp
59%
BTTS No
60%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 40%
+6% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -2%
1.19/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.28
+25% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +0%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
252 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 82%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
21.3 Crosses 19.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Palmeiras
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.21 xG 1.23
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
266 Passes 407
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
12 Box Touches 27
14 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 2
28.07.2024 Palmeiras Palmeiras 0-2 HT 0-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
15.04.2024 Vitoria Vitoria 0-1 HT 0-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
02.12.2018 Palmeiras Palmeiras 3-2 HT 1-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
19.08.2018 Vitoria Vitoria 0-3 HT 0-2 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
09.11.2017 Vitoria Vitoria 3-1 HT 3-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
16.07.2017 Palmeiras Palmeiras 4-2 HT 2-1 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria
2-2
AWAY Palmeiras
0.93 xG 1.71
40% Ball Possession 60%
15 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
219 Passes 363
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
29 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 21
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vitoria vs Palmeiras
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria and Palmeiras couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Palmeiras at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vitoria had 40% of the ball to Palmeiras's 60%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 0.93 to 1.71.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Vitoria and 2.00 for Palmeiras.

What was the final score of Vitoria vs Palmeiras?

Vitoria 2-2 Palmeiras in the Brazil - Serie A on 04/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria vs Palmeiras?

Before kick-off our model rated an Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Vitoria 32%, draw 27%, Palmeiras 42%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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