Alianza Petrolera 1-3 Atletico Bucaramanga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 4 Aug 2025

📅04/08/2025 · 🕒00:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.52
Over 2.5
40%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.09
No
54%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
46%
+0.7pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.7pp
26%
Away Win
26%
+1.0pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-1.9pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+1.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.1pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Bucaramanga EU Bookmakers 29%
+12% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +11%
1.34/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.17
+29% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +10%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
323 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 78%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.2
19.4 Crosses 14.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza Petrolera
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Atletico Bucaramanga
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.47 xG 0.53
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
214 Passes 356
70% Pass Accuracy 81%
11 Box Touches 15
15 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 4
23.03.2025 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-2 HT 1-0 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga KOL
19.02.2025 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga 0-0 HT 0-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
29.04.2024 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga 1-0 HT 1-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
11.10.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga KOL
12.09.2023 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga 0-1 HT 0-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
26.04.2023 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga 1-1 HT 0-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alianza Petrolera
1-3
AWAY Atletico Bucaramanga
1.17 xG 1.77
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 2
302 Passes 194
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
23 Box Touches 17
25 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Alianza Petrolera vs Atletico Bucaramanga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Bucaramanga saw off Alianza Petrolera 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Alianza Petrolera at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Alianza Petrolera had 60% of the ball to Atletico Bucaramanga's 40%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 1.17 to 1.77.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Alianza Petrolera and 0.67 for Atletico Bucaramanga.

What was the final score of Alianza Petrolera vs Atletico Bucaramanga?

Alianza Petrolera 1-3 Atletico Bucaramanga in the Colombia - Primera on 04/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza Petrolera vs Atletico Bucaramanga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alianza Petrolera win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Alianza Petrolera 46%, draw 27%, Atletico Bucaramanga 26%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Alianza Petrolera) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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