Independiente Medellin 1-0 Millonarios — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 4 Aug 2025

📅04/08/2025 · 🕒02:20 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
32%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.62
Over 2.5
48%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.95
No
48%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
10%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-5.1pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.5pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+6.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
58%
-6.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
42%
+6.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.6pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Millonarios EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -14%
1.17/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.28
-6% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +0%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
316 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 76%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
17.9 Crosses 13.6
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Medellin
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Millonarios
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.97 xG 1.29
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
315 Passes 282
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 4
16.02.2025 Millonarios Millonarios 0-1 HT 0-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
19.07.2024 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-1 HT 1-0 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
22.01.2024 Millonarios Millonarios 5-0 HT 3-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
01.12.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-1 HT 2-0 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
27.11.2023 Millonarios Millonarios 1-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
19.09.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-1 HT 0-1 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Medellin
1-0
AWAY Millonarios
0.98 xG 0.42
34% Ball Possession 66%
7 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
189 Passes 410
76% Pass Accuracy 86%
10 Box Touches 9
8 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Medellin squeezed past Millonarios 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Independiente Medellin as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Independiente Medellin had 34% of the ball to Millonarios's 66%, shots finished 7-13, expected goals 0.98 to 0.42.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Independiente Medellin and 1.50 for Millonarios.

What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios?

Independiente Medellin 1-0 Millonarios in the Colombia - Primera on 04/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Independiente Medellin 41%, draw 27%, Millonarios 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Medellin), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Medellin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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