Alianza Petrolera 1-2 Atletico Bucaramanga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 23 Mar 2025

📅23/03/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.57
Draw
35%
2.7
Away
29%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
Over 2.5
34%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
31%
2.4
No
69%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
47%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
12%
X/2
13%
X/X
28%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
35%
+0.3pp
36%
Draw
34%
+1.9pp
29%
Away Win
31%
-2.3pp
31%
BTTS Yes
38%
-6.6pp
69%
BTTS No
62%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Bucaramanga EU Bookmakers 34%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +20%
1.32/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.10
+36% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +14%
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
333 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 73%
16.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
17.1 Crosses 16.6
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza Petrolera
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Atletico Bucaramanga
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
0.69 xG 0.63
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
229 Passes 363
72% Pass Accuracy 82%
12 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 4
19.02.2025 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga 0-0 HT 0-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
29.04.2024 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga 1-0 HT 1-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
11.10.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga KOL
12.09.2023 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga 0-1 HT 0-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
26.04.2023 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga 1-1 HT 0-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
26.03.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 2-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alianza Petrolera
1-2
AWAY Atletico Bucaramanga
0.60 xG 0.67
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
203 Passes 289
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
10 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Alianza Petrolera vs Atletico Bucaramanga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Bucaramanga nicked a narrow win over Alianza Petrolera 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 36% / 29% — and on the day Atletico Bucaramanga made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (69%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Alianza Petrolera had 44% of the ball to Atletico Bucaramanga's 56%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 0.60 to 0.67.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alianza Petrolera had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Alianza Petrolera and 0.33 for Atletico Bucaramanga.

What was the final score of Alianza Petrolera vs Atletico Bucaramanga?

Alianza Petrolera 1-2 Atletico Bucaramanga in the Colombia - Primera on 23/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza Petrolera vs Atletico Bucaramanga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alianza Petrolera win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Alianza Petrolera 36%, draw 36%, Atletico Bucaramanga 29%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/36/29) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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