Rotherham United 1-1 Derby County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 4 Aug 2026

Rotherham United
1-1 HT 0-1
Derby County
📅04/08/2026 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Friendlies – 2026

Rotherham United vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.5
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
44%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.0
Over 2.5
45%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
9%
1/X
10%
X/1
10%
X/2
20%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
25%
+5.0pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.3pp
44%
Away Win
50%
-6.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
46%
+9.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
54%
-9.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.9pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rotherham United v Derby County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rotherham United EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Derby County EU Bookmakers 55%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -32% / -32%
0.51/2.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/2.14
-58% / -42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -45% / -44%
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
274 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
0.7 Yellow Cards 2.0

Rotherham United vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rotherham United
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Derby County
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.42 xG 1.43
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
176 Passes 399
62% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.02.2021 Rotherham United Rotherham United 3-0 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
16.01.2021 Derby County Derby County 0-1 HT 0-0 Rotherham United Rotherham United İNCL
30.03.2019 Derby County Derby County 6-1 HT 3-0 Rotherham United Rotherham United İNCL
15.09.2018 Rotherham United Rotherham United 1-0 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
07.05.2017 Rotherham United Rotherham United 1-1 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
19.11.2016 Derby County Derby County 3-0 HT 2-0 Rotherham United Rotherham United İNCL

Rotherham United 1-1 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rotherham United
1-1
AWAY Derby County
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Rotherham United vs Derby County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rotherham United and Derby County couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Derby County at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, shots finished 11-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rotherham United had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Rotherham United and 1.67 for Derby County.

What was the final score of Rotherham United vs Derby County?

Rotherham United 1-1 Derby County in the Friendlies on 04/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rotherham United vs Derby County?

Before kick-off our model rated an Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Rotherham United 30%, draw 26%, Derby County 44%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Derby County) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Derby County) ✓ Under 2.5
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