Nagoya Grampus 0-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - League Cup, 4 Sep 2024

📅04/09/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.08
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
41%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.71
Over 2.5
49%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.85
No
46%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.84
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
4.11
6+ Goals
10%
19.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
9%
1/X
11%
X/1
10%
X/2
15%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
29%
+1.0pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.6pp
41%
Away Win
44%
-2.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
55%
-3.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
45%
+3.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
50%
+3.5pp
46%
BTTS No
50%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 48%
+14% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.44/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/1.24
+16% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +8%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
397 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nagoya Grampus
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.12 xG 1.35
44% Ball Possession 56%
7 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
251 Passes 381
70% Pass Accuracy 79%
14 Box Touches 29
10 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 1
17.08.2024 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-2 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
06.05.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-3 HT 1-2 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
30.09.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-1 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
18.06.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-1 HT 1-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JLK
20.05.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-1 HT 1-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
26.03.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-2 HT 1-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nagoya Grampus
0-1
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sanfrecce Hiroshima edged past Nagoya Grampus 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sanfrecce Hiroshima as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Nagoya Grampus had 51% of the ball to Sanfrecce Hiroshima's 49%, shots finished 13-5.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nagoya Grampus had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Nagoya Grampus and 1.67 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

What was the final score of Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Nagoya Grampus 0-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the Japan - League Cup on 04/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Nagoya Grampus 30%, draw 28%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 41%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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