Nagoya Grampus 1-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 17 Aug 2024

Nagoya Grampus
1-2 HT 0-0
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
📅17/08/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2024

Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.69
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
44%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.67
Over 2.5
39%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.95
No
59%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.72
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.31
6+ Goals
8%
21.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.72 — our 33% vs market 30.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
6.41
1/2
6%
28.0
1/X
7%
14.5
X/1
9%
7.92
X/2
16%
4.24
X/X
17%
4.09
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
22%
2.63
2/X
7%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
24%
+1.7pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.3pp
44%
Away Win
48%
-4.1pp
61%
Under 2.5
56%
+5.4pp
39%
Over 2.5
44%
-5.4pp
41%
BTTS Yes
47%
-6.0pp
59%
BTTS No
53%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nagoya Grampus v Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 52%
+8% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -12%
1.16/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/0.95
+7% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +13%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
305 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 79%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.4
18.4 Crosses 23.4
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.1

Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nagoya Grampus
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.19 xG 0.98
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
231 Passes 393
69% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 24
10 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
06.05.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-3 HT 1-2 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
30.09.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-1 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
18.06.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-1 HT 1-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JLK
20.05.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-1 HT 1-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
26.03.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-2 HT 1-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JLK
17.09.2022 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-0 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP

Nagoya Grampus 1-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nagoya Grampus
1-2
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0.51 xG 1.84
49% Ball Possession 51%
5 Total Shots 18
1 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
331 Passes 365
75% Pass Accuracy 78%
15 Box Touches 29
15 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sanfrecce Hiroshima nicked a narrow win over Nagoya Grampus 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sanfrecce Hiroshima as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nagoya Grampus had 49% of the ball to Sanfrecce Hiroshima's 51%, shots finished 5-18, expected goals 0.51 to 1.84 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sanfrecce Hiroshima's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nagoya Grampus had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Nagoya Grampus and 1.33 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

What was the final score of Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Nagoya Grampus 1-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the Japan - J1 League on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Nagoya Grampus 25%, draw 30%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 44%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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