Machida Zelvia 4-0 Jubilo Iwata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 17 Aug 2024

Machida Zelvia
4-0 HT 3-0
Jubilo Iwata
📅17/08/2024 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2024

Machida Zelvia vs Jubilo Iwata Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.53
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.9
Over 2.5
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.95
No
50%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.35
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
3.53
6+ Goals
11%
13.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.35 — our 25% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.94
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
16.6
X/1
19%
3.66
X/2
5%
11.6
X/X
10%
5.33
2/1
8%
24.0
2/2
12%
9.56
2/X
5%
17.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
61%
-6.3pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.0pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+5.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
-0.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
+0.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.4pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Machida Zelvia v Jubilo Iwata — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Jubilo Iwata EU Bookmakers 20%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -6%
1.94/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/2.01
-21% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -16%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
389 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 77%
28.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
20.0 Crosses 17.3
0.7 Yellow Cards 1.3

Machida Zelvia vs Jubilo Iwata Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Machida Zelvia
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Jubilo Iwata
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.24 xG 1.57
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
324 Passes 231
77% Pass Accuracy 70%
35 Box Touches 7
51 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.04.2024 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 2-0 HT 0-0 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP
12.08.2023 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 2-1 HT 1-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP2
12.04.2023 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 1-1 HT 1-1 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP2
03.10.2021 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 1-2 HT 0-2 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP2
06.03.2021 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 1-3 HT 1-2 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP2
16.12.2020 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 3-2 HT 0-2 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP2

Machida Zelvia 4-0 Jubilo Iwata — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Machida Zelvia
4-0
AWAY Jubilo Iwata
3.18 xG 0.59
44% Ball Possession 56%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 6
218 Passes 301
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
36 Box Touches 10
24 Crosses 23
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Machida Zelvia vs Jubilo Iwata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Machida Zelvia cruised past Jubilo Iwata 4-0. Half-time: 3-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Machida Zelvia as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Machida Zelvia had 44% of the ball to Jubilo Iwata's 56%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 3.18 to 0.59.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Jubilo Iwata led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Machida Zelvia and 1.67 for Jubilo Iwata.

What was the final score of Machida Zelvia vs Jubilo Iwata?

Machida Zelvia 4-0 Jubilo Iwata in the Japan - J1 League on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Machida Zelvia vs Jubilo Iwata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Machida Zelvia win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Machida Zelvia 55%, draw 24%, Jubilo Iwata 22%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Machida Zelvia), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Machida Zelvia) ✓ Over 2.5
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