Cerezo Osaka 3-5 Kyoto Sanga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
35%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.82
Over 2.5
43%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.18
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.7
6+ Goals
9%
15.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.18 — our 31% vs market 25.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
2.95
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
11%
13.1
X/1
17%
4.68
X/2
12%
6.79
X/X
10%
4.48
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
17%
4.97
2/X
7%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
45%
-8.1pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.0pp
35%
Away Win
28%
+7.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
51%
+5.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
49%
-5.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.7pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Kyoto Sanga EU Bookmakers 32%
-4% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +4%
1.29/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.58
-8% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -14%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
436 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 74%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
20.7 Crosses 16.8
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerezo Osaka
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Kyoto Sanga
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.75 xG 1.37
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
316 Passes 250
75% Pass Accuracy 71%
20 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
01.06.2024 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 1-1 HT 0-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
25.11.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-1 HT 0-1 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
14.05.2023 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 0-1 HT 0-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
19.04.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-2 HT 0-1 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JLK
05.04.2023 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 4-0 HT 3-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JLK
29.10.2022 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 0-0 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerezo Osaka
3-5
AWAY Kyoto Sanga
2.18 xG 3.76
73% Ball Possession 27%
19 Total Shots 23
6 Shots on Target 9
11 Corners 5
515 Passes 161
85% Pass Accuracy 71%
42 Box Touches 30
32 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cerezo Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kyoto Sanga beat Cerezo Osaka 5-3 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 35% — and on the day Kyoto Sanga made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cerezo Osaka had 73% of the ball to Kyoto Sanga's 27%, shots finished 19-23, expected goals 2.18 to 3.76.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kyoto Sanga led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Cerezo Osaka and 1.33 for Kyoto Sanga.

What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga?

Cerezo Osaka 3-5 Kyoto Sanga in the Japan - J1 League on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerezo Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerezo Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Cerezo Osaka 37%, draw 28%, Kyoto Sanga 35%. The final score 3-5 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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