Real Madrid vs Villarreal Prediction — Model Probabilities
Real Madrid v Villarreal — Team-Based Signals
Real Madrid vs Villarreal Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Real Madrid 3-1 Villarreal — Actual Match Statistics
Real Madrid beat Villarreal 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
True to our pre-match read, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (56%) came in.
The match data tells the story: Real Madrid had 69% of the ball to Villarreal's 31%, shots finished 26-9, expected goals 3.52 to 0.99.
The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Real Madrid and 1.83 for Villarreal.
Real Madrid vs Villarreal Result & Final Score
Real Madrid 3-1 Villarreal in the Spain - Primera Liga on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Real Madrid vs Villarreal Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid 62%, draw 19%, Villarreal 19%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.