Real Madrid 2-0 Villarreal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 5 Oct 2024

Real Madrid
2-0 HT 1-0
Villarreal
📅05/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 4-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Real Madrid vs Villarreal Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.29
Draw
19%
5.15
Away
17%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.98
Over 2.5
59%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.66
No
53%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
7.62
2-3 Goals
38%
2.26
4-5 Goals
28%
2.42
6+ Goals
12%
4.42
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.43
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
22.7
X/1
22%
3.71
X/2
7%
21.0
X/X
6%
10.05
2/1
8%
19.1
2/2
4%
13.9
2/X
5%
21.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Real Madrid win — 64% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
73%
-8.7pp
19%
Draw
16%
+2.8pp
17%
Away Win
11%
+5.8pp
41%
Under 2.5
30%
+11.5pp
59%
Over 2.5
70%
-11.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.9pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Real Madrid v Villarreal — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Villarreal EU Bookmakers 14%
+1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +31%
2.19/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.89
+23% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +95% / +1%
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
493 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 79%
38.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
18.5 Crosses 8.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.7

Real Madrid vs Villarreal Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Madrid
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Villarreal
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.96 xG 1.46
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
495 Passes 407
89% Pass Accuracy 86%
32 Box Touches 28
13 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
19.05.2024 Villarreal Villarreal 4-4 HT 1-4 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
17.12.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 4-1 HT 2-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
08.04.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-3 HT 1-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
19.01.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 2-3 HT 2-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İSPK
07.01.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 2-1 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
12.02.2022 Villarreal Villarreal 0-0 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1

Real Madrid 2-0 Villarreal — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Madrid
2-0
AWAY Villarreal
0.47 xG 1.15
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 5
595 Passes 470
92% Pass Accuracy 91%
23 Box Touches 15
7 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Real Madrid vs Villarreal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid got the better of Villarreal 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Real Madrid had 55% of the ball to Villarreal's 45%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 0.47 to 1.15 — the balance of chances actually favoured Villarreal.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Real Madrid and 2.00 for Villarreal.

What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Villarreal?

Real Madrid 2-0 Villarreal in the Spain - Primera Liga on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Madrid vs Villarreal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid 64%, draw 19%, Villarreal 17%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İS1 More Spain - Primera Liga
5 Oct 2024
15:00 Espanyol vs Mallorca Analysis →
17:15 Getafe vs Osasuna Analysis →
19:30 Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano Analysis →
19:30 Las Palmas vs Celta Vigo Analysis →