Valladolid 1-2 Rayo Vallecano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.99
Draw
29%
2.88
Away
35%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.51
Over 2.5
42%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.09
No
57%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.21
2-3 Goals
36%
1.8
4-5 Goals
20%
5.6
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
5.02
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.5
X/1
15%
6.11
X/2
14%
4.68
X/X
12%
3.51
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
14%
3.46
2/X
9%
14.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
30%
+5.6pp
29%
Draw
31%
-1.9pp
35%
Away Win
39%
-3.7pp
58%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.8pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valladolid EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Rayo Vallecano EU Bookmakers 43%
+4% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -20%
1.22/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.37
-1% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / -21%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
271 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 78%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
19.8 Crosses 23.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valladolid
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Rayo Vallecano
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.09 xG 1.39
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
262 Passes 335
70% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
04.05.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 2-1 HT 0-0 Valladolid Valladolid İS1
14.01.2023 Valladolid Valladolid 0-1 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
05.08.2022 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 0-0 HT 0-0 Valladolid Valladolid HAZ
04.08.2021 Valladolid Valladolid 3-1 HT 2-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano HAZ
12.05.2019 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-2 HT 0-1 Valladolid Valladolid İS1
05.01.2019 Valladolid Valladolid 0-1 HT 0-1 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valladolid
1-2
AWAY Rayo Vallecano
1.99 xG 1.50
39% Ball Possession 61%
13 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 13
245 Passes 398
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
23 Box Touches 31
20 Crosses 30
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rayo Vallecano edged past Valladolid 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 29% / 35%) promised a tight game; Rayo Vallecano found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Valladolid had 39% of the ball to Rayo Vallecano's 61%, shots finished 13-17, expected goals 1.99 to 1.50 — on chances, Valladolid could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rayo Vallecano led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Valladolid and 1.00 for Rayo Vallecano.

What was the final score of Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano?

Valladolid 1-2 Rayo Vallecano in the Spain - Primera Liga on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valladolid win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Valladolid 36%, draw 29%, Rayo Vallecano 35%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Valladolid) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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