Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Valladolid v Rayo Vallecano — Team-Based Signals
Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 0-0
Valladolid
İS1
0-1
HT 0-0
Rayo Vallecano
İS1
0-0
HT 0-0
Valladolid
HAZ
3-1
HT 2-0
Rayo Vallecano
HAZ
1-2
HT 0-1
Valladolid
İS1
0-1
HT 0-1
Rayo Vallecano
İS1
Valladolid 1-2 Rayo Vallecano — Actual Match Statistics
Rayo Vallecano edged past Valladolid 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match split (36% / 29% / 35%) promised a tight game; Rayo Vallecano found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Valladolid had 39% of the ball to Rayo Vallecano's 61%, shots finished 13-17, expected goals 1.99 to 1.50 — on chances, Valladolid could feel hard done by.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rayo Vallecano led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Valladolid and 1.00 for Rayo Vallecano.
What was the final score of Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano?
Valladolid 1-2 Rayo Vallecano in the Spain - Primera Liga on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano?
Before kick-off our model rated a Valladolid win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Valladolid 36%, draw 29%, Rayo Vallecano 35%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.