Racing Ferrol 1-1 Ourense CF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.53
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
15%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.67
Over 2.5
42%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.19
No
57%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.54
2-3 Goals
40%
1.72
4-5 Goals
19%
4.18
6+ Goals
8%
21.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
24%
X/2
4%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
7%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
61%
+1.4pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.4pp
15%
Away Win
15%
+0.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
42%
+0.9pp
57%
BTTS No
58%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Racing Ferrol EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Ourense CF EU Bookmakers 18%
+4% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +6%
1.63/0.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/1.42
-4% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +8%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
362 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 386 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Racing Ferrol
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Ourense CF
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
60% Ball Possession 40%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 1
27.07.2024 Ourense CF Ourense CF 1-0 HT 1-0 Racing Ferrol Racing Ferrol HAZ
19.01.2014 Racing Ferrol Racing Ferrol 3-1 HT 2-0 Ourense CF Ourense CF İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Racing Ferrol
1-1
AWAY Ourense CF
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Racing Ferrol vs Ourense CF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Racing Ferrol and Ourense CF couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Racing Ferrol at 63% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Racing Ferrol had 55% of the ball to Ourense CF's 45%, shots finished 10-14.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Racing Ferrol and 1.00 for Ourense CF.

What was the final score of Racing Ferrol vs Ourense CF?

Racing Ferrol 1-1 Ourense CF in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Racing Ferrol vs Ourense CF?

Before kick-off our model rated a Racing Ferrol win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Racing Ferrol 63%, draw 23%, Ourense CF 15%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Racing Ferrol), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Racing Ferrol) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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