Bellinzona 0-3 Etoile Carouge — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.25
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
28%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.74
Over 2.5
49%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.81
No
46%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.75
2-3 Goals
39%
1.73
4-5 Goals
21%
3.85
6+ Goals
11%
17.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
41%
+1.2pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.7pp
28%
Away Win
31%
-3.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
54%
-2.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
46%
+2.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.1pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bellinzona EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Etoile Carouge EU Bookmakers 34%
-9% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
1.19/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.44
-28% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
358 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 78%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
17.5 Crosses 11.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bellinzona
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Etoile Carouge
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.85 xG 1.80
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 3
304 Passes 439
81% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Box Touches 17
12 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.04.2025 Etoile Carouge Etoile Carouge 7-0 HT 2-0 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
22.02.2025 Bellinzona Bellinzona 0-0 HT 0-0 Etoile Carouge Etoile Carouge İSV2
22.11.2024 Etoile Carouge Etoile Carouge 2-2 HT 1-1 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
03.08.2024 Bellinzona Bellinzona 1-1 HT 1-0 Etoile Carouge Etoile Carouge İSV2
06.03.2022 Bellinzona Bellinzona 4-1 HT 1-0 Etoile Carouge Etoile Carouge İSV1Y
11.09.2021 Etoile Carouge Etoile Carouge 2-4 HT 1-3 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV1Y
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bellinzona
0-3
AWAY Etoile Carouge
1.05 xG 1.72
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 3
352 Passes 371
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
23 Box Touches 10
31 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Bellinzona vs Etoile Carouge
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Etoile Carouge ran out comfortable winners over Bellinzona 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Bellinzona at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Bellinzona had 50% of the ball to Etoile Carouge's 50%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 1.05 to 1.72.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bellinzona had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Bellinzona and 2.17 for Etoile Carouge.

What was the final score of Bellinzona vs Etoile Carouge?

Bellinzona 0-3 Etoile Carouge in the Switzerland Challenge League on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bellinzona vs Etoile Carouge?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bellinzona win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Bellinzona 42%, draw 30%, Etoile Carouge 28%. The final score 0-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Bellinzona) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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