CF Montreal 1-1 Nashville SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.84
Draw
21%
3.54
Away
44%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.23
Over 2.5
59%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.5
No
41%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.43
2-3 Goals
38%
1.88
4-5 Goals
28%
2.82
6+ Goals
11%
7.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
4.5
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
22.25
1/X
7%
13.05
X/1
8%
6.97
X/2
16%
5.24
X/X
8%
5.58
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
21%
2.9
2/X
6%
12.6
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.25 — our 7% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+3.1pp
21%
Draw
25%
-3.6pp
44%
Away Win
44%
+0.5pp
41%
Under 2.5
41%
+0.4pp
59%
Over 2.5
59%
-0.4pp
59%
BTTS Yes
62%
-3.3pp
41%
BTTS No
38%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CF Montreal EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Nashville SC EU Bookmakers 48%
+3% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.29/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.06/1.19
-12% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -11%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
361 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 381 · 83%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.3
17.6 Crosses 16.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CF Montreal
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Nashville SC
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.72 xG 1.40
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
470 Passes 357
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
23.03.2025 Nashville SC Nashville SC 3-0 HT 0-0 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
26.05.2024 CF Montreal CF Montreal 0-0 HT 0-0 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
05.05.2024 Nashville SC Nashville SC 4-1 HT 2-0 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
22.06.2023 CF Montreal CF Montreal 1-0 HT 1-0 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
12.03.2023 Nashville SC Nashville SC 2-0 HT 1-0 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
19.05.2022 Nashville SC Nashville SC 2-1 HT 1-0 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CF Montreal
1-1
AWAY Nashville SC
0.96 xG 1.57
34% Ball Possession 66%
6 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 10
230 Passes 490
79% Pass Accuracy 90%
10 Box Touches 32
7 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH CF Montreal vs Nashville SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CF Montreal and Nashville SC shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Nashville SC at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (59%) landed while over 2.5 goals (59%) missed.

On the day, CF Montreal had 34% of the ball to Nashville SC's 66%, shots finished 6-20, expected goals 0.96 to 1.57.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nashville SC led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for CF Montreal and 1.83 for Nashville SC.

What was the final score of CF Montreal vs Nashville SC?

CF Montreal 1-1 Nashville SC in the USA - Major League on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CF Montreal vs Nashville SC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nashville SC win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split CF Montreal 35%, draw 21%, Nashville SC 44%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Nashville SC), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nashville SC) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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