Baglan Dragons 1-1 Llantwit Major — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒16:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.53
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
32%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.75
Over 2.5
45%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
36%
+5.8pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
33%
Away Win
38%
-5.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
53%
+1.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
47%
-1.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.8pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Baglan Dragons EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Llantwit Major EU Bookmakers 42%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.59/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.19
-2% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +40%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
323 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Baglan Dragons
2W-2D-0L
AWAY Llantwit Major
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 0.25
08.03.2025 Llantwit Major 0-1 HT 0-1 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons GALFAW
30.11.2024 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons 0-0 HT 0-0 Llantwit Major GALFAW
29.03.2024 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons 0-0 Llantwit Major GALFAW
12.08.2023 Llantwit Major 1-4 HT 1-2 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons GALFAW
POST-MATCH Baglan Dragons vs Llantwit Major
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Baglan Dragons and Llantwit Major shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Baglan Dragons at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Baglan Dragons had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Baglan Dragons and 0.25 for Llantwit Major.

What was the final score of Baglan Dragons vs Llantwit Major?

Baglan Dragons 1-1 Llantwit Major in the Wales - FAW Championship on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Baglan Dragons vs Llantwit Major?

Before kick-off our model rated a Baglan Dragons win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Baglan Dragons 42%, draw 26%, Llantwit Major 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Baglan Dragons), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Baglan Dragons) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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