Gwangju 2-3 Daegu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Kore - K League Classic, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.89
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
25%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.78
Over 2.5
42%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.06
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
3.93
6+ Goals
8%
17.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.06 — our 33% vs market 27.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.63
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.9
X/1
19%
4.44
X/2
7%
7.72
X/X
16%
4.62
2/1
10%
25.5
2/2
10%
6.12
2/X
6%
14.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
49%
-2.2pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.6pp
25%
Away Win
25%
-0.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.7pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.1pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gwangju EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Daegu EU Bookmakers 29%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -1%
1.04/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.73
-39% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -21%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
382 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 76%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
15.4 Crosses 13.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gwangju
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Daegu
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
390 Passes 310
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
13 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.06.2025 Daegu Daegu 1-1 HT 0-1 Gwangju Gwangju GKOR
09.04.2025 Gwangju Gwangju 2-1 HT 2-0 Daegu Daegu GKOR
18.10.2024 Gwangju Gwangju 1-1 HT 0-0 Daegu Daegu GKOR
21.07.2024 Daegu Daegu 0-1 HT 0-1 Gwangju Gwangju GKOR
11.05.2024 Daegu Daegu 3-2 HT 2-2 Gwangju Gwangju GKOK
31.03.2024 Gwangju Gwangju 1-2 HT 1-1 Daegu Daegu GKOK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gwangju
2-3
AWAY Daegu
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
377 Passes 219
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gwangju vs Daegu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Daegu squeezed past Gwangju 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Gwangju at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gwangju had 61% of the ball to Daegu's 39%, shots finished 16-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Gwangju and 1.33 for Daegu.

What was the final score of Gwangju vs Daegu?

Gwangju 2-3 Daegu in the South Kore - K League Classic on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gwangju vs Daegu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gwangju win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Gwangju 46%, draw 29%, Daegu 25%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gwangju) ✗ Under 2.5
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