Juticalpa 1-3 Marathon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
14%
4.13
Draw
21%
3.18
Away
65%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.8
Over 2.5
38%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.81
No
61%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
55%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
3%
X/2
30%
X/X
14%
2/1
3%
2/2
30%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
14%
Home Win
21%
-6.3pp
21%
Draw
28%
-7.2pp
65%
Away Win
52%
+13.5pp
62%
Under 2.5
52%
+10.0pp
38%
Over 2.5
48%
-10.0pp
39%
BTTS Yes
51%
-12.0pp
61%
BTTS No
49%
+12.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Juticalpa EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Marathon EU Bookmakers 56%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -12%
0.36/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.14
-63% / +70% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -16%
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
358 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 500 · 88%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Juticalpa
0W-2D-3L
AWAY Marathon
0.40 Avg Goals (FT) 3.20
28.07.2025 Marathon Marathon 7-0 HT 4-0 Juticalpa Juticalpa HON
07.03.2025 Marathon Marathon 4-0 HT 2-0 Juticalpa Juticalpa HON
20.01.2025 Juticalpa Juticalpa 0-0 HT 0-0 Marathon Marathon HON
21.10.2024 Juticalpa Juticalpa 1-1 HT 0-0 Marathon Marathon HON
11.08.2024 Marathon Marathon 4-1 HT 1-0 Juticalpa Juticalpa HON
POST-MATCH Juticalpa vs Marathon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marathon got the better of Juticalpa 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Marathon as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Marathon led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.40 goals for Juticalpa and 3.20 for Marathon.

What was the final score of Juticalpa vs Marathon?

Juticalpa 1-3 Marathon in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Juticalpa vs Marathon?

Before kick-off our model rated an Marathon win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Juticalpa 14%, draw 21%, Marathon 65%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marathon) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Marathon) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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