ADT 3-2 Sporting Cristal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.12
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
37%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.67
Over 2.5
47%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
12%
X/1
9%
X/2
20%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
43%
-8.3pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.0pp
38%
Away Win
28%
+9.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.4pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ADT EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Cristal EU Bookmakers 32%
-13% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +4%
1.58/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.45
+5% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -15%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
320 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 75%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.7
24.9 Crosses 17.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ADT
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Sporting Cristal
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.34 xG 1.68
40% Ball Possession 60%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
194 Passes 335
72% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 3
17.05.2025 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 2-1 HT 1-1 ADT ADT PER
12.07.2024 ADT ADT 3-1 HT 1-1 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal PER
27.01.2024 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 6-2 HT 1-1 ADT ADT PER
06.08.2023 ADT ADT 1-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal PER
05.03.2023 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 0-0 HT 0-0 ADT ADT PER
29.09.2022 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 4-2 HT 1-0 ADT ADT PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ADT
3-2
AWAY Sporting Cristal
2.85 xG 1.63
43% Ball Possession 57%
21 Total Shots 16
9 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 12
281 Passes 379
83% Pass Accuracy 86%
21 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 37
POST-MATCH ADT vs Sporting Cristal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ADT edged past Sporting Cristal 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 28% / 38% — and on the day ADT made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, ADT had 43% of the ball to Sporting Cristal's 57%, shots finished 21-16, expected goals 2.85 to 1.63 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold ADT's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Cristal led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for ADT and 2.33 for Sporting Cristal.

What was the final score of ADT vs Sporting Cristal?

ADT 3-2 Sporting Cristal in the Peru - Premier League on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ADT vs Sporting Cristal?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting Cristal win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split ADT 35%, draw 28%, Sporting Cristal 38%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Cristal) ✗ Under 2.5
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