America Mineiro 2-2 Novorizontino — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 4 Nov 2025

📅04/11/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.27
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
26%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.56
Over 2.5
38%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.3
2-3 Goals
39%
1.73
4-5 Goals
16%
4.7
6+ Goals
8%
27.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.3 — our 37% vs market 35.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
23%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
40%
+5.9pp
28%
Draw
30%
-2.1pp
26%
Away Win
30%
-3.8pp
62%
Under 2.5
60%
+1.7pp
38%
Over 2.5
40%
-1.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.9pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME America Mineiro EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Novorizontino EU Bookmakers 33%
-5% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -8%
1.39/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.10
+14% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +27%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
299 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 77%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
20.7 Crosses 21.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME America Mineiro
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Novorizontino
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.33 xG 1.84
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
453 Passes 223
82% Pass Accuracy 72%
16 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
12.07.2025 Novorizontino Novorizontino 3-1 HT 1-1 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
17.08.2024 Novorizontino Novorizontino 1-1 HT 1-1 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
28.04.2024 America Mineiro America Mineiro 2-0 HT 1-0 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME America Mineiro
2-2
AWAY Novorizontino
1.73 xG 2.26
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 10
329 Passes 305
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 14
15 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH America Mineiro vs Novorizontino
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

America Mineiro and Novorizontino couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was America Mineiro at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, America Mineiro had 51% of the ball to Novorizontino's 49%, shots finished 15-17, expected goals 1.73 to 2.26.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for America Mineiro and 1.33 for Novorizontino.

What was the final score of America Mineiro vs Novorizontino?

America Mineiro 2-2 Novorizontino in the Brazil - Serie B on 04/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for America Mineiro vs Novorizontino?

Before kick-off our model rated a America Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split America Mineiro 46%, draw 28%, Novorizontino 26%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (America Mineiro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR2 More Brazil - Serie B
4 Nov 2025
01:00 Volta Redonda vs Botafogo SP Analysis →