Libertad 1-3 Independiente Del Valle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 4 Nov 2025

📅04/11/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
4.13
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
56%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.9
Over 2.5
53%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
6%
X/2
28%
X/X
14%
2/1
4%
2/2
21%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
21%
-2.1pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.4pp
56%
Away Win
55%
+1.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
49%
-2.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
51%
+2.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.1pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 58%
-1% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -3%
1.46/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/0.79
+16% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +56%
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
195 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 80%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
19.7 Crosses 18.6
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.77 xG 1.07
35% Ball Possession 65%
8 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
196 Passes 433
73% Pass Accuracy 86%
8 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
14.06.2025 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 1-1 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
16.02.2025 Libertad Libertad 2-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
21.09.2024 Libertad Libertad 1-1 HT 1-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
07.04.2024 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 3-0 HT 2-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
17.09.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-0 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
15.04.2023 Libertad Libertad 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
1-3
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
1.42 xG 3.48
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 30
1 Shots on Target 12
4 Corners 12
248 Passes 280
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
29 Box Touches 35
25 Crosses 34
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Libertad vs Independiente Del Valle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Del Valle got the better of Libertad 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Independiente Del Valle as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Libertad had 48% of the ball to Independiente Del Valle's 52%, shots finished 13-30, expected goals 1.42 to 3.48.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Libertad and 1.17 for Independiente Del Valle.

What was the final score of Libertad vs Independiente Del Valle?

Libertad 1-3 Independiente Del Valle in the Ecuador - Premier on 04/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs Independiente Del Valle?

Before kick-off our model rated an Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Libertad 19%, draw 25%, Independiente Del Valle 56%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Del Valle), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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