Genk 2-1 Standard Liege — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Cup, 4 Dec 2024

📅04/12/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.61
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
25%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.95
Over 2.5
44%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.48
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.31
6+ Goals
10%
12.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.48 — our 28% vs market 22.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
58%
-7.6pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.8pp
25%
Away Win
18%
+6.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
48%
+8.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
52%
-8.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.1pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Genk EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Standard Liege EU Bookmakers 21%
-20% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.37/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.33/3.00
-36% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -66% / -42%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
344 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Genk
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Standard Liege
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.87 xG 0.98
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
392 Passes 272
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
27 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
28.07.2024 Genk Genk 0-0 HT 0-0 Standard Liege Standard Liege BEL
10.03.2024 Genk Genk 1-0 HT 0-0 Standard Liege Standard Liege BEL
25.11.2023 Standard Liege Standard Liege 1-0 HT 0-0 Genk Genk BEL
09.04.2023 Standard Liege Standard Liege 2-0 HT 2-0 Genk Genk BEL
31.07.2022 Genk Genk 3-1 HT 3-1 Standard Liege Standard Liege BEL
13.02.2022 Genk Genk 2-0 HT 1-0 Standard Liege Standard Liege BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Genk
2-1
AWAY Standard Liege
69% Ball Possession 31%
17 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 1
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Genk vs Standard Liege
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Genk nicked a narrow win over Standard Liege 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Genk as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Genk had 69% of the ball to Standard Liege's 31%, shots finished 17-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Genk had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Genk and 0.67 for Standard Liege.

What was the final score of Genk vs Standard Liege?

Genk 2-1 Standard Liege in the Belgium - Cup on 04/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Genk vs Standard Liege?

Before kick-off our model rated a Genk win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Genk 51%, draw 25%, Standard Liege 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Genk) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Genk) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BEK More Belgium - Cup
4 Dec 2024
22:00 OH Leuven vs SV Zulte Waregem Analysis →
22:00 Union Saint-Gilloise vs Gent Analysis →
22:30 Kortrijk vs Royal Antwerp Analysis →
22:30 Beerschot VA vs Mechelen Analysis →
22:30 Cercle Brugge vs St. Truidense Analysis →