Union Saint-Gilloise 3-2 Gent — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Cup, 4 Dec 2024

📅04/12/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.53
Draw
17%
3.94
Away
27%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.91
Over 2.5
55%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.95
No
49%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.31
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
3.43
6+ Goals
9%
13.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
24%
X/2
10%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
61%
-5.4pp
18%
Draw
22%
-4.7pp
27%
Away Win
17%
+10.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
48%
-3.8pp
55%
Over 2.5
52%
+3.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.5pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Gent EU Bookmakers 20%
+24% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -27% / -27%
1.85/0.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.50/2.94
-15% / +129% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / -34%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
411 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 239 · 69%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.0 Crosses
3.5 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Gent
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.08 xG 1.11
47% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
331 Passes 412
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
19.10.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 0-0 HT 0-0 Gent Gent BEL
10.03.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 1-1 HT 0-0 Gent Gent BEL
26.11.2023 Gent Gent 1-1 HT 1-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
08.04.2023 Gent Gent 1-1 HT 0-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
12.01.2023 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 4-0 HT 3-0 Gent Gent BEK
19.10.2022 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 2-0 HT 1-0 Gent Gent BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
3-2
AWAY Gent
3.77 xG 1.81
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 18
8 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 7
291 Passes 346
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Union Saint-Gilloise vs Gent
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Saint-Gilloise squeezed past Gent 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Union Saint-Gilloise as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Union Saint-Gilloise had 46% of the ball to Gent's 54%, shots finished 15-18, expected goals 3.77 to 1.81 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Union Saint-Gilloise's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Saint-Gilloise had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Union Saint-Gilloise and 0.50 for Gent.

What was the final score of Union Saint-Gilloise vs Gent?

Union Saint-Gilloise 3-2 Gent in the Belgium - Cup on 04/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Saint-Gilloise vs Gent?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Saint-Gilloise win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Union Saint-Gilloise 56%, draw 18%, Gent 27%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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