Cruz Azul 1-1 Tigres UANL — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 4 Dec 2025

📅04/12/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.19
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
28%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
52%
1.71
Over
48%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.82
No
48%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1
28%
2.76
2-3
42%
1.74
4-5
20%
3.91
6+
10%
18.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.25
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
10%
12.85
X/1
22%
5.12
X/2
8%
6.72
X/X
7%
4.18
2/1
6%
29.0
2/2
14%
4.96
2/X
8%
13.45
Value flag · X/1 at 5.12 — our 22% vs market 15.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
46%
Home Win
42%
+4.5pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.4pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-0.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
55%
-3.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
45%
+3.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.5pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruz Azul The Market 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Tigres UANL The Market 32%
+2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -5%
1.34/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.28
+5% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +21%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
325 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 79%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
20.2 Crosses 17.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruz Azul
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Tigres UANL
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.42 xG 0.92
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
412 Passes 251
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
31 Box Touches 15
26 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 3
05.10.2025 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 1-1 HT 0-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
02.05.2025 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL CON
24.04.2025 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 1-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul CON
16.02.2025 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 2-1 HT 0-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
10.11.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-1 HT 0-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
18.02.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-0 HT 0-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruz Azul
1-1
AWAY Tigres UANL
1.62 xG 1.24
68% Ball Possession 32%
19 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 1
397 Passes 154
84% Pass Accuracy 68%
15 Box Touches 9
22 Crosses 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cruz Azul vs Tigres UANL
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruz Azul and Tigres UANL couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Cruz Azul at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Cruz Azul had 68% of the ball to Tigres UANL's 32%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 1.62 to 1.24.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruz Azul had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Cruz Azul and 0.83 for Tigres UANL.

What was the final score of Cruz Azul vs Tigres UANL?

Cruz Azul 1-1 Tigres UANL in the Mexico - Primera on 04/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruz Azul vs Tigres UANL?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Cruz Azul 46%, draw 25%, Tigres UANL 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Cruz Azul) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cruz Azul) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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