Tigres UANL 1-1 Cruz Azul — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.97
Over 2.5
45%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.66
No
54%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.47
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
3.16
6+ Goals
9%
11.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.47 — our 32% vs market 22.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-1.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.2pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+0.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
47%
+7.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
53%
-7.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.1pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tigres UANL EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +17%
1.48/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.27
-6% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +43%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
305 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 79%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
20.5 Crosses 16.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tigres UANL
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Cruz Azul
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.87 xG 1.20
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
278 Passes 389
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 30
15 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 3
02.05.2025 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL CON
24.04.2025 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 1-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul CON
16.02.2025 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 2-1 HT 0-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
10.11.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-1 HT 0-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
18.02.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-0 HT 0-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
22.10.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 2-1 HT 0-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tigres UANL
1-1
AWAY Cruz Azul
1.11 xG 1.47
36% Ball Possession 64%
12 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 3
254 Passes 518
77% Pass Accuracy 88%
24 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tigres UANL and Cruz Azul couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Tigres UANL at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Tigres UANL had 36% of the ball to Cruz Azul's 64%, shots finished 12-17, expected goals 1.11 to 1.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Tigres UANL and 1.00 for Cruz Azul.

What was the final score of Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul?

Tigres UANL 1-1 Cruz Azul in the Mexico - Primera on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tigres UANL win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Tigres UANL 44%, draw 27%, Cruz Azul 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Tigres UANL), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tigres UANL) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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