Queretaro 3-1 Puebla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
36%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.68
Over 2.5
44%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.64
2-3 Goals
38%
1.72
4-5 Goals
20%
4.0
6+ Goals
9%
19.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.64 — our 33% vs market 30.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
34%
+3.0pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.3pp
36%
Away Win
39%
-2.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
-0.4pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Queretaro EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Puebla EU Bookmakers 43%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -3%
1.32/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.41
+2% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +45%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
288 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 78%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
19.1 Crosses 15.4
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Queretaro
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Puebla
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.16 xG 1.31
39% Ball Possession 61%
14 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
236 Passes 401
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.03.2025 Queretaro Queretaro 2-0 HT 1-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
14.09.2024 Puebla Puebla 2-1 HT 1-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
24.02.2024 Puebla Puebla 0-2 HT 0-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
18.09.2023 Queretaro Queretaro 1-1 HT 0-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
14.01.2023 Puebla Puebla 2-0 HT 1-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
02.09.2022 Queretaro Queretaro 1-1 HT 1-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Queretaro
3-1
AWAY Puebla
1.62 xG 0.89
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
310 Passes 319
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 27
12 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Queretaro vs Puebla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Queretaro beat Puebla 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 27% / 36% — and on the day Queretaro made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Queretaro had 49% of the ball to Puebla's 51%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 1.62 to 0.89.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Queretaro and 1.00 for Puebla.

What was the final score of Queretaro vs Puebla?

Queretaro 3-1 Puebla in the Mexico - Primera on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Queretaro vs Puebla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Queretaro win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Queretaro 37%, draw 27%, Puebla 36%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Queretaro) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Queretaro) ✗ Under 2.5
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