Pau 1-4 Nantes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Cup, 5 Jan 2024

Pau
1-4 HT 1-0
Nantes
📅05/01/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.87
Draw
32%
3.72
Away
42%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
3.19
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
25%
3.64
6+ Goals
7%
15.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
6.76
1/2
5%
23.45
1/X
8%
16.05
X/1
9%
8.51
X/2
12%
3.85
X/X
13%
5.07
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
25%
2.29
2/X
10%
15.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
23%
+3.5pp
32%
Draw
24%
+8.3pp
42%
Away Win
54%
-11.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+5.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-5.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.2pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pau EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Nantes EU Bookmakers 57%
+45% / +45% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +23%
1.18/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/0.25
+47% / +88% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -47% /
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
275 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 413 · 80%
11.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
7.0 Crosses 20.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pau
1-4
AWAY Nantes
0.72 xG 2.41
33% Ball Possession 67%
5 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 9
0 Corners 6
254 Passes 604
74% Pass Accuracy 89%
7 Box Touches 43
8 Crosses 34
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pau vs Nantes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nantes cruised past Pau 4-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Nantes as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pau had 33% of the ball to Nantes's 67%, shots finished 5-20, expected goals 0.72 to 2.41.

What was the final score of Pau vs Nantes?

Pau 1-4 Nantes in the France - Cup on 05/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pau vs Nantes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nantes win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Pau 26%, draw 32%, Nantes 42%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nantes) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nantes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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