Tuen Mun SA 3-1 Wing Yee — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division, 5 Jan 2025

📅05/01/2025 · 🕒08:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.16
Draw
20%
7.13
Away
20%
12.05
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.23
Over 2.5
61%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
2.09
No
40%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
6%
2/1
4%
2/2
7%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Tuen Mun SA win — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
82%
-22.7pp
20%
Draw
12%
+8.7pp
20%
Away Win
6%
+14.0pp
39%
Under 2.5
41%
-1.9pp
61%
Over 2.5
59%
+1.9pp
60%
BTTS Yes
44%
+15.9pp
40%
BTTS No
56%
-15.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tuen Mun SA EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Wing Yee EU Bookmakers 8%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -49% / -11%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
415 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tuen Mun SA
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Wing Yee
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
19 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
17.11.2024 Wing Yee Wing Yee 0-2 Tuen Mun SA Tuen Mun SA HK2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tuen Mun SA
3-1
AWAY Wing Yee
66% Ball Possession 34%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Tuen Mun SA vs Wing Yee
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tuen Mun SA saw off Wing Yee 3-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Tuen Mun SA as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (60%) came in.

On the day, Tuen Mun SA had 66% of the ball to Wing Yee's 34%, shots finished 12-9.

What was the final score of Tuen Mun SA vs Wing Yee?

Tuen Mun SA 3-1 Wing Yee in the Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division on 05/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tuen Mun SA vs Wing Yee?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tuen Mun SA win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Tuen Mun SA 60%, draw 20%, Wing Yee 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tuen Mun SA), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tuen Mun SA) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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