Yuen Long 3-2 Hoi King — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division, 5 Jan 2025

📅05/01/2025 · 🕒10:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.25
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
42%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
Over 2.5
53%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.46
No
44%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
5%
X/2
17%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
21%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Hoi King win — 42%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
41%
-8.6pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.2pp
42%
Away Win
34%
+7.4pp
56%
BTTS Yes
64%
-8.8pp
44%
BTTS No
36%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Yuen Long EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Hoi King EU Bookmakers 38%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.21/1.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.71
-27% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -14%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
257 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Yuen Long
3W-1D-1L
AWAY Hoi King
2.20 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
53% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.09.2024 Hoi King Hoi King 2-1 Yuen Long Yuen Long HK2
03.03.2024 Yuen Long Yuen Long 2-1 HT 1-1 Hoi King Hoi King HK2
05.11.2023 Hoi King Hoi King 0-2 HT 0-0 Yuen Long Yuen Long HK2
02.04.2023 Yuen Long Yuen Long 1-1 HT 1-1 Hoi King Hoi King HK2
14.11.2021 Hoi King Hoi King 0-5 HT 0-2 Yuen Long Yuen Long HK2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Yuen Long
3-2
AWAY Hoi King
60% Ball Possession 40%
22 Total Shots 9
12 Shots on Target 4
13 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Yuen Long vs Hoi King
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Yuen Long squeezed past Hoi King 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Hoi King at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Yuen Long had 60% of the ball to Hoi King's 40%, shots finished 22-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Yuen Long had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.20 goals for Yuen Long and 0.80 for Hoi King.

What was the final score of Yuen Long vs Hoi King?

Yuen Long 3-2 Hoi King in the Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division on 05/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Yuen Long vs Hoi King?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hoi King win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Yuen Long 32%, draw 26%, Hoi King 42%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Hoi King) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hoi King) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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