Hoi King 2-1 Yuen Long — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
3.17
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
57%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.43
Over 2.5
55%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.46
No
42%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
9%
1/X
3%
X/1
3%
X/2
22%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
26%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
28%
-8.6pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.1pp
57%
Away Win
49%
+8.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
38%
+7.8pp
55%
Over 2.5
62%
-7.8pp
58%
BTTS Yes
64%
-6.0pp
42%
BTTS No
36%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hoi King EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Yuen Long EU Bookmakers 53%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
0.82/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.97/0.86
-31% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +20%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
361 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 413 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 0.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hoi King
0W-1D-3L
AWAY Yuen Long
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 10
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.03.2024 Yuen Long Yuen Long 2-1 HT 1-1 Hoi King Hoi King HK2
05.11.2023 Hoi King Hoi King 0-2 HT 0-0 Yuen Long Yuen Long HK2
02.04.2023 Yuen Long Yuen Long 1-1 HT 1-1 Hoi King Hoi King HK2
14.11.2021 Hoi King Hoi King 0-5 HT 0-2 Yuen Long Yuen Long HK2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hoi King
2-1
AWAY Yuen Long
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Hoi King vs Yuen Long
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hoi King squeezed past Yuen Long 2-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Yuen Long at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Hoi King had 49% of the ball to Yuen Long's 51%, shots finished 15-11.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Yuen Long led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Hoi King and 2.50 for Yuen Long.

What was the final score of Hoi King vs Yuen Long?

Hoi King 2-1 Yuen Long in the Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hoi King vs Yuen Long?

Before kick-off our model rated an Yuen Long win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Hoi King 19%, draw 24%, Yuen Long 57%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Yuen Long) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Yuen Long) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HK2 More Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division
22 Sep 2024
08:00 South China vs Shatin SA Analysis →
08:30 Wing Yee vs Sham Shui Po Analysis →
10:30 Tuen Mun SA vs Eastern District Analysis →
12:30 Resources Capital FC vs Citizen AA Analysis →
14:30 Central & Western vs WSE Analysis →