South China 1-0 Shatin SA — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.64
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
28%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.96
Over 2.5
58%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.41
No
46%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
32%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
56%
-7.6pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.0pp
28%
Away Win
22%
+5.6pp
42%
Under 2.5
30%
+11.5pp
58%
Over 2.5
70%
-11.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
67%
-12.3pp
46%
BTTS No
33%
+12.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME South China EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Shatin SA EU Bookmakers 26%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +22%
2.79/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.56
+58% / +63% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
412 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME South China
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Shatin SA
2.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
25.02.2024 South China South China 3-1 HT 1-0 Shatin SA Shatin SA HK2
15.10.2023 Shatin SA Shatin SA 3-2 HT 0-1 South China South China HK2
21.05.2023 Shatin SA Shatin SA 0-3 HT 0-0 South China South China HK2
16.10.2022 South China South China 1-2 HT 0-0 Shatin SA Shatin SA HK2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME South China
1-0
AWAY Shatin SA
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 1
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH South China vs Shatin SA
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

South China edged past Shatin SA 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had South China as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, South China had 50% of the ball to Shatin SA's 50%, shots finished 12-10.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 2.25 goals for South China and 1.50 for Shatin SA.

What was the final score of South China vs Shatin SA?

South China 1-0 Shatin SA in the Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for South China vs Shatin SA?

Before kick-off our model rated a South China win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split South China 49%, draw 23%, Shatin SA 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (South China) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (South China) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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