Portimonense U23 1-0 Santa Clara U23 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - U23 National Championship, 5 Feb 2025

📅05/02/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.38
Draw
35%
3.18
Away
35%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.75
Over 2.5
44%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.76
No
47%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
10%
1/X
9%
X/1
7%
X/2
10%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
38%
-8.7pp
35%
Draw
28%
+7.0pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+1.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
53%
+2.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
47%
-2.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.1pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portimonense U23 EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Santa Clara U23 EU Bookmakers 37%
-41% / -41% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
0.59/1.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.51
-65% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +2%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
346 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portimonense U23
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Santa Clara U23
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
45% Ball Possession 55%
6 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
04.12.2024 Santa Clara U23 Santa Clara U23 0-1 Portimonense U23 Portimonense U23 UŞGB
17.09.2024 Portimonense U23 Portimonense U23 3-1 Santa Clara U23 Santa Clara U23 UŞGB
04.03.2024 Santa Clara U23 Santa Clara U23 1-0 Portimonense U23 Portimonense U23 PORU23
16.01.2024 Portimonense U23 Portimonense U23 1-1 HT 0-1 Santa Clara U23 Santa Clara U23 PORU23
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portimonense U23
1-0
AWAY Santa Clara U23
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Portimonense U23 vs Santa Clara U23
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portimonense U23 nicked a narrow win over Santa Clara U23 1-0.

Our pre-match split (30% / 35% / 35%) promised a tight game; Portimonense U23 found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Portimonense U23 had 51% of the ball to Santa Clara U23's 49%, shots finished 9-7.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Portimonense U23 had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Portimonense U23 and 0.75 for Santa Clara U23.

What was the final score of Portimonense U23 vs Santa Clara U23?

Portimonense U23 1-0 Santa Clara U23 in the Portugal - U23 National Championship on 05/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portimonense U23 vs Santa Clara U23?

Before kick-off our model rated an Santa Clara U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Portimonense U23 30%, draw 35%, Santa Clara U23 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (30/35/35) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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