ADT 1-1 Cienciano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 5 Mar 2025

📅05/03/2025 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.33
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
31%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.82
2-3 Goals
38%
1.72
4-5 Goals
22%
3.71
6+ Goals
8%
16.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.82 — our 32% vs market 28.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
40%
+1.1pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.7pp
31%
Away Win
31%
-0.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.7pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ADT EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Cienciano EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
362 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ADT
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Cienciano
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.67 xG 1.30
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
261 Passes 227
74% Pass Accuracy 71%
21 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
10.02.2025 Cienciano Cienciano 2-2 HT 0-0 ADT ADT PER
22.07.2024 Cienciano Cienciano 0-1 HT 0-0 ADT ADT PER
03.02.2024 ADT ADT 1-1 HT 0-1 Cienciano Cienciano PER
21.09.2023 Cienciano Cienciano 2-2 HT 1-1 ADT ADT PER
30.04.2023 ADT ADT 3-4 HT 1-4 Cienciano Cienciano PER
24.07.2022 ADT ADT 0-1 HT 0-1 Cienciano Cienciano PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ADT
1-1
AWAY Cienciano
0.62 xG 0.15
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 3
5 Shots on Target 0
4 Corners 2
328 Passes 251
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
18 Box Touches 10
15 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH ADT vs Cienciano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ADT and Cienciano shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was ADT at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, ADT had 53% of the ball to Cienciano's 47%, shots finished 16-3, expected goals 0.62 to 0.15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cienciano led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for ADT and 1.67 for Cienciano.

What was the final score of ADT vs Cienciano?

ADT 1-1 Cienciano in the Copa Sudamericana on 05/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ADT vs Cienciano?

Before kick-off our model rated a ADT win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split ADT 41%, draw 28%, Cienciano 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (ADT), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (ADT) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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