Golden Arrows 1-1 Mamelodi Sundowns — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Afrika - Premier League, 5 Mar 2025

📅05/03/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
5.91
Draw
27%
4.08
Away
50%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.86
Over 2.5
42%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.09
No
55%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.07
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
3.44
6+ Goals
8%
13.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.07 — our 32% vs market 25.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
4%
2/2
31%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
14%
+9.3pp
27%
Draw
21%
+6.0pp
50%
Away Win
66%
-15.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
50%
+7.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
50%
-7.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.9pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Golden Arrows EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Mamelodi Sundowns EU Bookmakers 70%
+15% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -8%
1.13/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/0.78
+97% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +55% / +28%
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
179 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 438 · 81%
15.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.4
16.4 Crosses 14.1
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Golden Arrows
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Mamelodi Sundowns
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
0.34 xG 2.34
34% Ball Possession 66%
6 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
198 Passes 517
70% Pass Accuracy 88%
9 Box Touches 31
10 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 2
02.02.2025 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 4-0 HT 1-0 Golden Arrows Golden Arrows GAFPSL
19.10.2024 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 5-0 Golden Arrows Golden Arrows GAFLK
08.05.2024 Golden Arrows Golden Arrows 0-0 HT 0-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
15.08.2023 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 4-0 HT 3-0 Golden Arrows Golden Arrows GAFPSL
10.09.2022 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 2-1 HT 1-0 Golden Arrows Golden Arrows GAFPSL
12.04.2022 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 6-0 HT 3-0 Golden Arrows Golden Arrows GAFPSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Golden Arrows
1-1
AWAY Mamelodi Sundowns
0.43 xG 1.79
33% Ball Possession 67%
6 Total Shots 19
1 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
152 Passes 395
70% Pass Accuracy 88%
6 Box Touches 47
15 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Golden Arrows vs Mamelodi Sundowns
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Golden Arrows and Mamelodi Sundowns couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Mamelodi Sundowns at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Golden Arrows had 33% of the ball to Mamelodi Sundowns's 67%, shots finished 6-19, expected goals 0.43 to 1.79.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mamelodi Sundowns led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Golden Arrows and 3.50 for Mamelodi Sundowns.

What was the final score of Golden Arrows vs Mamelodi Sundowns?

Golden Arrows 1-1 Mamelodi Sundowns in the South Afrika - Premier League on 05/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Golden Arrows vs Mamelodi Sundowns?

Before kick-off our model rated an Mamelodi Sundowns win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Golden Arrows 23%, draw 27%, Mamelodi Sundowns 50%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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