Slaven Belupo 3-1 HNK Gorica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - HR Nogometni Cup, 5 Mar 2025

📅05/03/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.8
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.97
2-3 Goals
42%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
3.54
6+ Goals
9%
14.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.97 — our 29% vs market 26.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
9%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
52%
-6.1pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.0pp
26%
Away Win
23%
+3.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.1pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Slaven Belupo EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 26%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
308 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Slaven Belupo
2W-2D-2L
AWAY HNK Gorica
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.15 xG 1.14
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
344 Passes 298
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
13.12.2024 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 2-1 HT 0-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
30.09.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 2-1 HT 1-1 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
04.05.2024 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 4-1 HT 1-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
25.02.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-0 HT 0-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
10.11.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-0 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
25.08.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 2-2 HT 1-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Slaven Belupo
3-1
AWAY HNK Gorica
57% Ball Possession 43%
19 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Slaven Belupo beat HNK Gorica 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Slaven Belupo as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Slaven Belupo had 57% of the ball to HNK Gorica's 43%, shots finished 19-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Slaven Belupo and 1.17 for HNK Gorica.

What was the final score of Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica?

Slaven Belupo 3-1 HNK Gorica in the Croatia - HR Nogometni Cup on 05/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Slaven Belupo win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Slaven Belupo 45%, draw 29%, HNK Gorica 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Slaven Belupo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Slaven Belupo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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