IFK Mariehamn 4-0 FC Lahti — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - League Cup, 5 Mar 2026

IFK Mariehamn
4-0 HT 2-0
FC Lahti
📅05/03/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Finland - League Cup – 2026

IFK Mariehamn vs FC Lahti Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.25
Draw
33%
3.45
Away
29%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.0
Over 2.5
44%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.51
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
3.08
6+ Goals
10%
10.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.51 — our 31% vs market 21.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
10%
2/2
12%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
41%
-2.4pp
32%
Draw
26%
+6.8pp
29%
Away Win
34%
-4.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
46%
+9.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
54%
-9.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.9pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

IFK Mariehamn v FC Lahti — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Lahti EU Bookmakers 37%
-20% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +23%
0.29/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/0.33
-83% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -50% / +150%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
314 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 80%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 1.0

IFK Mariehamn vs FC Lahti Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME IFK Mariehamn
1W-3D-2L
AWAY FC Lahti
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.08 xG 1.28
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
309 Passes 392
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
21 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.09.2024 FC Lahti FC Lahti 2-1 HT 2-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
18.08.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Lahti FC Lahti FİN
12.05.2024 FC Lahti FC Lahti 3-0 HT 2-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
23.02.2024 FC Lahti FC Lahti 1-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FLK
08.10.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Lahti FC Lahti FİN
23.07.2023 FC Lahti FC Lahti 0-2 HT 0-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
POST-MATCH IFK Mariehamn vs FC Lahti
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

IFK Mariehamn swept aside FC Lahti 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 32% / 29%) promised a tight game; IFK Mariehamn found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Lahti led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for IFK Mariehamn and 1.00 for FC Lahti.

What was the final score of IFK Mariehamn vs FC Lahti?

IFK Mariehamn 4-0 FC Lahti in the Finland - League Cup on 05/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for IFK Mariehamn vs FC Lahti?

Before kick-off our model rated a IFK Mariehamn win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split IFK Mariehamn 38%, draw 32%, FC Lahti 29%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (IFK Mariehamn) — while Under 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (IFK Mariehamn) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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