Kelty Hearts 0-6 Dumbarton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - 1st Division, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.9
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
33%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.97
Over 2.5
44%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.48
2-3 Goals
45%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
3.19
6+ Goals
8%
11.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.48 — our 28% vs market 22.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
21%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
49%
-8.8pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.9pp
33%
Away Win
26%
+7.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
47%
+9.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
53%
-9.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.6pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kelty Hearts EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Dumbarton EU Bookmakers 30%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +6%
1.14/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.87
-30% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -19%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
113 · 94% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 87 · 92%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
8.0 Crosses 3.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kelty Hearts
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Dumbarton
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
5 Corners 3
28.12.2024 Dumbarton Dumbarton 2-0 HT 0-0 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts İK1
09.11.2024 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts 2-0 HT 0-0 Dumbarton Dumbarton İK1
31.08.2024 Dumbarton Dumbarton 2-2 HT 1-1 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts İK1
09.09.2023 Dumbarton Dumbarton 1-3 HT 1-2 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts İKCK
POST-MATCH Kelty Hearts vs Dumbarton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dumbarton cruised past Kelty Hearts 6-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 33%) promised a tight game; Dumbarton found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Kelty Hearts had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Kelty Hearts and 1.25 for Dumbarton.

What was the final score of Kelty Hearts vs Dumbarton?

Kelty Hearts 0-6 Dumbarton in the Scotland - 1st Division on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kelty Hearts vs Dumbarton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kelty Hearts win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Kelty Hearts 40%, draw 27%, Dumbarton 33%. The final score 0-6 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Kelty Hearts), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kelty Hearts) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İK1 More Scotland - 1st Division
5 Apr 2025
17:00 Montrose vs Arbroath Analysis →
17:00 Annan Athletic vs Queen Of The South Analysis →
17:00 Stenhousemuir vs Alloa Athletic Analysis →
17:00 Cove Rangers vs Inverness CT Analysis →