Dumbarton 2-0 Kelty Hearts — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - 1st Division, 28 Dec 2024

📅28/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.38
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
44%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.15
Over 2.5
58%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.55
No
45%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
3.96
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
29%
2.88
6+ Goals
11%
8.81
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 2.88 — our 29% vs market 27.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
10%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
15%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
38%
-6.5pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.4pp
44%
Away Win
36%
+7.9pp
42%
Under 2.5
43%
-1.1pp
58%
Over 2.5
57%
+1.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.9pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dumbarton EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Kelty Hearts EU Bookmakers 40%
+0% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
1.78/1.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.90
+16% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / -24%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
148 · 91% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 165 · 91%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dumbarton
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Kelty Hearts
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
3 Corners 5
09.11.2024 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts 2-0 HT 0-0 Dumbarton Dumbarton İK1
31.08.2024 Dumbarton Dumbarton 2-2 HT 1-1 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts İK1
09.09.2023 Dumbarton Dumbarton 1-3 HT 1-2 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts İKCK
POST-MATCH Dumbarton vs Kelty Hearts
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dumbarton got the better of Kelty Hearts 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Kelty Hearts at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Kelty Hearts led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Dumbarton and 2.33 for Kelty Hearts.

What was the final score of Dumbarton vs Kelty Hearts?

Dumbarton 2-0 Kelty Hearts in the Scotland - 1st Division on 28/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dumbarton vs Kelty Hearts?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kelty Hearts win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Dumbarton 32%, draw 24%, Kelty Hearts 44%. The final score 2-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Kelty Hearts) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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