Pontedera 4-1 Lucchese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.66
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.26
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
3.34
6+ Goals
11%
12.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.26 — our 30% vs market 24.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
23%
X/2
8%
X/X
18%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
56%
-9.2pp
28%
Draw
24%
+4.3pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+4.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.7pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pontedera EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Lucchese EU Bookmakers 24%
-3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +4%
1.78/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/1.33
+12% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
343 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pontedera
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Lucchese
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
25.11.2024 Lucchese Lucchese 2-1 HT 1-1 Pontedera Pontedera İTC
06.03.2024 Pontedera Pontedera 2-2 HT 0-1 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
29.10.2023 Lucchese Lucchese 1-2 HT 1-1 Pontedera Pontedera İTC
15.01.2023 Pontedera Pontedera 0-0 HT 0-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
14.09.2022 Lucchese Lucchese 1-1 HT 0-0 Pontedera Pontedera İTC
20.02.2022 Lucchese Lucchese 1-2 HT 1-0 Pontedera Pontedera İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pontedera
4-1
AWAY Lucchese
40% Ball Possession 60%
15 Total Shots 29
8 Shots on Target 14
1 Corners 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Pontedera vs Lucchese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pontedera cruised past Lucchese 4-1. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Pontedera as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Pontedera had 40% of the ball to Lucchese's 60%, shots finished 15-29.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pontedera had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Pontedera and 1.17 for Lucchese.

What was the final score of Pontedera vs Lucchese?

Pontedera 4-1 Lucchese in the Italy - Serie C on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pontedera vs Lucchese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pontedera win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Pontedera 46%, draw 28%, Lucchese 25%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pontedera) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pontedera) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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